It’s been almost three weeks since the Patriots’ historic comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI. The confetti’s been swept up, the duck boats are back to their usual tours, and it’s time to look forward to the upcoming season (if you’re Bill Belichick, then the team’s already weeks behind in preparation). The first thing on the docket is the impending free agency. The Patriots are in a situation that is unique to them in multiple aspects. On one hand, the Patriots have a daunting 21 players coming off the books this year, many of whom were big contributors to the Patriots’ championship season. On the other, the Patriots rank seventh highest in cap space at a whopping $61,522,843. Let’s break down the highlights of who New England’s losing, and break down who they should keep and who they should let walk. It’s difficult to ever predict what Bill Belichick is ever going to do, but I’ll try my best.

Dont’a Hightower – Lock Him Down Long-Term

Leading off, this should be a no-brainer to those following New England’s defense for the last few years. Lock Dont’a up long-term.

For starters, the Patriots have sold on multiple defensive stars this past year. The season kicked off with Chandler Jones being dealt to Arizona. Jones was a stud even in his rookie year, constantly playing at a high level. Even this year in Arizona, he notched 11 sacks over this season.

On Halloween of this year, the Patriots made a second shocking move in moving Jamie Collins to the Browns for a third-round draft pick. There’s a common theme in these two trades. Both players were stars in their respective positions, and both were going to make big money this offseason. Bill, being a realist, knew both were going to ask for more than the Patriots would ever be  willing to pay up. In a typical Belichickian move,  New England cut their losses early and got what they could for the two.

However, one expiring contract they held onto was Dont’a Hightower. They held onto him and they were smart to do so. Hightower has been the unsung hero in the two Super Bowls he’s played in. The play from Super Bowl LI is still fresh in our heads: Patriots down 16, 8 1/2 minutes left, he sacked Matt Ryan, forced a fumble, and put the offense back on the field so Brady could go to work.

Super Bowl XLIX, however, may have held the arguably more important play. Following that circus catch by Jermaine Kearse, the Seahawks were first and goal looking to seal their victory. Wilson hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, and Hightower proceeds to take on All-Pro lineman Russell Okung, throw him aside like a ragdoll, then meet Lynch one-on-one and prevent the touchdown. This stopped the Seahawks from establishing the run, turning to passing on the goal line, and the rest is history.

Keeping Hightower and establishing him as a leader long-term has to be the #1 priority this offseason. Although the Patriots are notorious for not shelling out money to anyone, they may have to pay up to keep such an important, impactful defender on their roster for years to come.

Martellus Bennett – Keep Him At the Right Price

This is going to be one of the hardest goodbyes for Patriots fans. New England brought Bennett in this year for cheap from the Bears. He instantly brought memories of the monster two-TE set in Rob Gronkowski and The Murderer that Shall Not Be Named. When Gronk went down with a back injury that placed him on IR, Bennett stepped up to fill in as the lead tight end. He ended up making a big impact as a target for the Patriots for the rest of the season and through the Super Bowl.

However, in every marriage, the honeymoon phase is always finite. Now that the Patriots have won the Super Bowl and Bennett is a free agent, expect a Revis-style divorce. Bennett has been very open about wanting to get paid, even being quoted as saying, “I’m going into free agency as a Super Bowl champion. You know they overpay Super Bowl champions.”

Bennett is turning 30 in March, and the Patriots often don’t shell out for players on the wrong side of that number. If he’s willing to come back on a reasonable deal, I’m sure the Patriots will be more than happy to have his talents back in Foxboro. However, if he wants money, expect a team in need of a TE to give him the money that he wants and that the Patriots would never dole out.

Malcolm Butler – First Round Tender

Malcolm Butler, New England’s top cornerback and Super Bowl hero, is the only restricted free agent I have in this rundown, and for good reason. Outside maybe Cameron Fleming and Matt Lengel, there aren’t really any players of note that most Patriot fans would recognize. Many fans, however, know the name Malcolm Butler (Pete Carroll often hears it echoing in his darkest of nightmares).

Yes, Malcolm Butler is the hero of Super Bowl XLIX and has risen to star-cornerback status since. Since joining the Patriots as an undrafted rookie, he’s made a paltry sum of money. In the two games Michael Floyd played for the Patriots following his DUI and release from Arizona, he cashed out at $1.2 million. This past season, Malcolm Butler made $600,000 as New England’s leading corner. Life isn’t always fair.

Butler will most likely stay under New England’s control this offseason. Placing a first-round tender on Butler as an RFA would pay him $3.85 million for the 2017 season. Despite his abilities, I don’t think any teams would give up a first-round pick for Butler. Although the $3.85 million would be a nice upgrade for Butler from his rookie deal, expect the Patriots and Butler to work from there and structure a proper long-term deal.

Jabaal Sheard – Let Him Walk

Simply put, the Patriots will not work to resign Jabaal Sheard. Sheard joined the Patriots in 2015 on a two-year, $11 million deal following his solid four-year stint with Cleveland. In those two years, Sheard netted 48 total tackles, 13.0 sacks, and 8 forced fumbles. Sheard revitalized his career in New England after a weak last season with the Browns and has been a big asset to the Patriots defensive line.

Despite all this, New England is notorious for not paying defensive linemen. With SportRac listing his market value at an average annual salary of $8.8 million, Belichick will happily let Sheard walk and embrace the “Next Man Up” mantra that’s been a theme in New England since Bill’s arrival.

Sebastian Vollmer – Expect Retirement

It’s a shame to say, but it seems as though Sebastian Vollmer’s tenure as a Patriot is up. Firse and foremost, the Patriots are always looking for youth at the line. For example, 28-year-old Marcus Cannon signed a five-year, $35 million contract extension with New England this past November. Under offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, Cannon is playing the best football he’s played in years. The increase in level of play combined with the big contract he signed will solidify him as New England’s right tackle for the foreseeable future.

Cannon’s contract will expire when he is 33, the same age Sebastian Vollmer is nearing now. Pair that with the multitude of injuries that he’s had in his career (including the one that sidelined him for a large part of this season), and you’ve got a good rationale for New England to stay far away.

LeGarrette Blount – Another Short Bargain Deal

LeGarrette Blount may be an exception to the oft observed rule for running backs. As history usually dictates, it’s best to stay away from RBs over 30. However, Blount turns 30 this year and is coming off one of the best season of his career. This season marked a career high for Blount in both yards and touchdowns. He has relatively low tread on his tires for a running back his age, and judging by the stats he put up this past year, he could be in for a big pay day.

The Patriots signed Blount to a one-year, $1 million deal last offseason after not getting much action in free agency. As a one-dimensional bruiser back on the wrong side of 30, any long-term deal would be foolish. Another one-year deal for $2-3 million would be ideal for New England.

With a committee of running backs in Blount, Dion Lewis, and James White, the Patriots would return what would have to be one of the best run games New England has had under Tom Brady.

Chris Long – If Sheard Walks, Long Stays

Chris Long came into New England on a small one-year, $2.million deal this past offseason. After seemingly losing a step his last two years as a St. Louis Ram, Long was a good veteran presence for the Patriots. He amassed 4.0 sacks on the season (matching his total for his final two years as a Ram) and provided some much-needed pressure in key defensive situations in Super Bowl LI.

Long is obviously not the same as he was back in 2011 and 2012, but he can still provide a good deal for a Patriots defense that is most likely going to look pretty different from its 2016 Super Bowl-winning counterpart. If the Patriots can lock him up for two years without breaking the bank, I don’t see who says no.

Michael Floyd – If Stigma Keeps Teams Away, New England Should Pounce

Michael Floyd came to the Patriots off waivers after he was released from the Cardinals for an extreme DUI. Floyd was found asleep at the wheel and pretty much incoherent when police attempted to speak to him. In his two games as a Patriot, he scored a single touchdown and had an electric block on a long Edelman touchdown.

In the weeks following the Super Bowl, Floyd pleaded guilty to his DUI charges. He’ll spend 24 days in an Arizona prison, then another 96 days under house arrest. On top of this, Floyd will likely face a multi-game suspension this coming season.

This series of events shouldn’t take away from the fact that Floyd is simply a beast. He’s a former first-round pick who was the #2 WR for Arizona behind Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd is 6’2″ 220 lbs, incredibly uncharacteristic for the scrappy, undersized New England receiving core. This was his first season where he posted under 500 yards in his career, most likely due to a combination of the Cardinal’s struggles in 2016 combined with his situation.

New England is no stranger to troubled stars. The Patriots have often been seen as a rehabilitation team, where players with big egos and troubled pasts have come in and thrived. That’s why Belichick took him off waivers in the first place. A talent like Michael Floyd doesn’t come around too often, and if the opportunity arises, you dive on it like a loose ball in the endzone.

If this prison time and looming suspension keeps teams away, then expect the Patriots to capitalize.

Alan Branch – A One-Year Deal

Alan Branch has bounced around a lot in the NFL. New England’s the fourth team he’s played for, and he’s objectively played the best for them. Branch has never really shined in the NFL, especially in the passing game. But, as the Patriots do better than anyone else, Branch’s talent was maximized in New England. Here, he was used as a run-stopper and a hole-clogger, and he shined in that position. Notching 84 combined tackled in his two years in the league is an impressive feat, but Branch is at a crossroads now. He wants to get paid, but would also like to stay with the team that he’s had the most success on in his career.

At 32 years old, it’ll be hard for New England to justify raising their price for him just to keep him. If Branch expects a bidding war between New England and another team to start over him, he may as well start packing the moving truck now. But if he’s willing to take less money for the team who rejuvenated his career, then there’s no harm in a one-year deal for a player that was integral to the run defense.

James Develin – An Under Appreciated Aspect of the Patriot Offense

James Develin has been a big asset to New England’s run game in the last few years. He’s been in New England since 2012 and has established himself as a key role player in the offense. Develin does a very good job as a lead blocker, both on 1st and 1o and at the goal line. He’s an old-school, nose-to-the-grindstone kind of player. He’s been an unsung hero for the Patriots in the years he’s been here.

Fullbacks, more so than any other position on the field, are not to be overpaid for.  Yet with New England’s incredible success in the two-back power-run game this past year, I can’t see Belichick passing up on a workhorse like Develin. He’s only 28, and although he isn’t an effective runner, he’s paved lanes for New England running backs his entire tenure here. As long as a team doesn’t dump millions for a fullback, expect him back in New England.

Logan Ryan & Duron Harmon – It’ll Be Tough, But Both Walk

Like New England did following Super Bowl XLIX, expect a new-look secondary in New England.

I’ve grouped these two together because they’re both in similar situations. Both are 26-year-old Rutgers alum that have drastically exceeded expectations. Both were forced to step up when Darelle Revis and Brandon Browner left New England in the offseason following Super Bowl XLIX. And both will probably do the same this offseason.

SportRac calculates Logan Ryan’s market value at $14.4 million as an average annual salary. This number would make Ryan the second highest paid cornerback in the NFL behind Josh Norman. In a five-year deal, that’s $2 million more than what New England passed on to sign Darelle Revis. Granted, Ryan is much younger than Revis was at the time, but the Patriots are simply not paying that kind of money to anyone.

Harmon, although not as skilled as Ryan, is also a huge asset to the New England secondary. As third safety behind Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, Harmon did a lot to make the Patriots one of the better passing defenses in the NFL. Like Ryan, however, Duron Harmon is going to make a lot of money this offseason, and New England is just not the kind of team to match that.

Both Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon have expressed interest in remaining in New England. Unless they take less money to do so, anticipate their price tags being too high for New England to match