In my first season really trying to consume the game of football from a critical, informed perspective, I feel like I have needed a guy–someone or something whose hill I’m willing to die on–and I think that guy is going to be Justin Herbert.
Everyone in sports media has a cause that they champion; someone or something that, when the topic arises, lights a spark in them. Whether it comes from debate show talking-heads, columnists, radio guys, podcasts hosts, or echoes from the Twitter void, this is something that you go to war for. Questioning this topic is out of the question, and to be confronted with any bad evidence will have you searching for any glimmer of the contrary in an attempt to write the whole thing up as a wash. Most casually, this concept can most simply be boiled down to being a “__________ guy.”
You can be a Brady guy or a Peyton guy. An analytics guy, an All-22 guy. I’m a Breanna Stewart guy after watching her first two games in the Wubble Finals. Nick Wright is a Pat Mahomes guy. Stephen A. Smith isn’t a Cowboys guy. Mina Kimes is a Russell Wilson guy, or could alternatively be a Russell Wilson gal if she prefers. There are guys for specific arguments. You could have been a Lamar Jackson guy when talking about the crop of quarterbacks from the 2018 Draft, baffled why he was the fifth quarterback taken and almost immediately validated. You could really go to bat for a promising outside linebacker, not getting as many snaps because of a log jam at the position. There are guys for MVP debates, best in the league debates, even GOAT debates.
But in sports media, having a guy is more than just having a preference. It is something inextricably tied to your evaluation ability and debate prowess. If you choose to champion one draft prospect over another, a Twitter egg can pull receipts on you every time they stink it up on the field. Someone challenges you on where your guy stands compared to their guy, you better have the facts to back up your stance. At some point, being for or against a player can check your credibility. If you were down on Josh Allen for two years because the numbers told you he was bad and the film shows flashes of both sides, you better change your tune when he ends up 4th in EPA/play and 3rd in CPOE through four weeks (per RBSDM).
For almost my entire football fandom, I’ve been a Tom Brady guy. Now he’s gone to Tampa Bay. I’m still a Patriots fan, I’ll still be a Brady guy in GOAT conversations, and I can still cling to being a Belichick guy. But in terms of quarterbacks I look forward to watching on a Sunday-to-Sunday basis, I’m a free agent. Cam Newton’s already an established commodity. At this point, I’m just along for the ride (and man it’s been fun). I really want to get in on the ground floor of a quarterback, living out his full NFL life cycle being his ride-or-die. Considering the last two MVPs won the award on their rookie contracts, that doesn’t give me much real untapped potential to scout. Even the chatter surrounding Kyler Murray’s sophomore debut has made me skittish on hopping in on anyone with real NFL experience. That leads me to the rookies.
I’ve always been an LSU guy despite never having any real affiliation to a D1 school, so it would be easy to just adopt Joe Burrow. I won some money because of Tua during his debut at the 2018 National Championship, so I already have some fun moments with him. But Tua plays for a division rival, stuck behind Ryan Tannehill with no real chance at playing time on the horizon. And I like Joe Burrow, but do I really want put myself through the arduous task of watching Bengals game every week?
I found out about Justin Herbert starting the same way everyone else in America did. I tuned in Sunday afternoon to watch Kansas City, hot off a commanding win over the once-promising-on-paper Houston Texans, ready to continue things against a division rival. As the kickoff returner was downed and the Chargers offense trotted out, I was surprised to see the rookie taking the field over Week 1 starter Tyrod Taylor. There was no announcement during the week about a change, no chatter during the lead-up to the game. It turns out, Herbert was never planned to start this game. Taylor was scratched and rushed to the hospital after a team doctor’s pregame injection meant to treat a rib injury missed its mark. The rookie out of Oregon heard the news moments before kickoff, with no real warning that he was going to be starting against the reigning Super Bowl Champions.
Herbert grabbed my attention out of the gate, leading the Chargers on an 8-play, 79-yard drive to kick off the game. My favorite moment of the drive came on third-and-4 from the Kansas City 20 with 12:10 to play. Austin Eckeler motioned across the field pre-snap, transitioning into a wheel route at the snap of the ball. Hunter Henry, in between the tackle and Eckeler’s eventual wheel route, pushed upfield and brought Daniel Sorensen in coverage with him. This forced Juan Thornhill–following Eckeler sideline-to-sideline–over and around Eckeler’s release point. From the moment Justin Herbert received the snap, his eyes were fixated on the left pylon of the endzone. He immediately fell under duress, but released the ball off his back foot as three Chiefs pass rushers crash in on him. Austin Eckeler was able to make a beautiful leaping catch as he boxes out a falling Thornhill.
If Thornhill hadn’t barely graze Eckeler, it would have been a touchdown. Instead, it set up 1st-and-goal from the 3. The Chargers came to the line of scrimmage with seven down linemen, Justin Jackson lined up as a tight end with his hand in the dirt on the right side of the line, and a receiver split out left. Joshua Kelley remained the lone back in the backfield. Justin Herbert faked the outside handoff to Kelley as he began to roll out. Kelley began his fade toward the pylon, bringing rookie defensive end Mike Danna into coverage with him. Jackson ran a route straight to the back of the endzone, forcing Anthony Hitchens to respect him as a receiver and vacate coverage the right side of the field. Kelley, able to get in front of Danna, was tripped up by a combination of a misstep Kelley and some holding on Danna’s part. Kelley tumbled, halting Danna’s forward progress just enough to create a two-yard window between the 260-lb defensive end and the right pylon. Danna’s short hop over Kelley actually forced him into the endzone, giving Herbert the room he needed to pick up his first NFL score. He took a nice pop once fully across the goal line, showing what might have been if Joshua Kelley hadn’t slowed the defender up. Herbert sprung right back up, unfazed and ready to celebrate with teammates.
Now sure, Herbert’s debut wasn’t perfect. If he missed on a pass, he’d miss high. He had a tendency to stare down spots before throwing there. Even on that opening drive, things could have gone a lot differently. If Juan Thornhill plays a shade deeper off the line of scrimmage, he’s in a better position to make a play on the Eckeler pass. If Mike Danna doesn’t get tripped up, maybe Herbert gets met before the goal line and isn’t able to muscle through contact for the score. What got me excited is the calm confidence he played with on that first drive. In the face of a heavy pass rush, he had the confidence to throw the ball to a spot and trust the play design would mean that someone would be there to make a play on the ball. With a one-on-one at the goal line, he had the guts to lower his shoulder and prepare to fight for a touchdown. It was fun football. Justin Herbert looked composed, like a guy who didn’t just find out that he would be starting against the reigning Super Bowl Champions during the coin toss.
There was even promise in his less successful plays. On a would-be touchdown pass to Mike Williams broken up on excellent coverage by Tyrann Mathieu, Herbert took a deep rollout to the right after faking the handoff. The line of scrimmage was at the Chiefs 39-yard-line, but Herbert’s back foot was on his own 48 upon releasing the pass. 57 air yards to the heart of the endzone with relative ease, impossible to break up had it been placed a foot to the left. We can also look to a one-yard run on 3rd-and-2 at the 50 that helped to keep a drive alive. Kansas City rushed four and still managed to bust through the Chargers offensive line with ease. Herbert is flushed out of the pocket after Trai Turner was almost bulled into him. By the time he’s done avoiding that, Trey Pipkins’ man is a yard behind him. Herbert is forced as deep as fifteen yards behind the line of scrimmage before making progress. He evaded pressure and made it all the way back to the line of scrimmage before meeting contact, popping up after an open field hit. Herbert avoided what seemed like a sure sack, setting up Josh Kelley to pick up the first down and eventually culminating in Herbert’s first career passing touchdown.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs would go on to win the day. The ball was proverbially taken out of Herbert’s hands near the end of the game, as the Chargers ran four straight run plays in the red zone, then ran the same play Herbert ran to score his opening touchdown on 3rd-and-goal, which was now met by a hoard of red helmets. In overtime, the Chargers called a screen, a run on 2nd-and-long, and a 6-yard comeback route on 3rd-and-7 before punting. Los Angeles wouldn’t see the ball again. I was excited, though. Justin Herbert looked pretty good, and did it all against a quality defense boasting a star defensive back. The circumstances this all came under–the surprise start with no preparation against the reigning Super Bowl Champions–should have been enough to win me over, but I wanted to play the long game. It was enough for me to tune in next week.
Week 3 at Carolina started off as a hearty humbling for my Herbert hype. The Chargers were forced into a three-and-out after a Herbert sack, then the next drive saw Herbert get strip-sacked and lose the fumble. While Carolina’s Brian Burns blew up the Chargers right tackle in order to force that turnover, that is about as poorly as your first two opening drives can go. Luckily enough, the Chargers defense had done a good job stymieing Carolina’s offense, holding them to two field goals. It might be easy to get discouraged after opening up in such a fashion. Instead, Justin Herbert shook off the bad start and led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in just under five-and-a-half minutes.
Outside of that drive, capped by a 12-yard Austin Eckeler touchdown run, the Chargers really failed to get things going in the first half against the Panthers. The drive following the Eckeler score ended on the third play after a Josh Kelley fumble. In their last drive of the half, a 45-yard strike to Mike Williams was wiped away after Williams was flagged for OPI (he was also injured on the play). This 1st & 20 was picked up, but three plays later the drive was cut short after Herbert threw a pick returned for 66 yards. Herbert made the tackle, preventing the pick six. Donte Jackson simply followed Herbert’s eyes, and Herbert was too tunnel-visioned on Keenan Allen to notice Jackson waiting to jump the route.
The second half started off with more of the same, embellished by costly errors. Their second drive looked like it had life: Herbert moved the ball with relative ease and his depth of target was further downfield than the screens run and comeback routes targeted in the first half. A disastrous fumble recovered for an 18-yard loss would kill the drive. Herbert finally orchestrated another long quality drive, upon reaching the red zone, a Herbert pass to set up 2nd & 5 would be nullified by an illegal use of hands by Dan Feeney. The 2nd & 20 led to a broken up pass and a 3rd & 20 screen for a loss. The Chargers settled for a field goal. Herbert really shined at the end of the game, leading a 17-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, going 7-11 through the air for 62 yards in the process and even tacked on an 11-yard scramble as well. The last drive of the game, with the Chargers down five, started on their own 1-yard-line with 76 seconds to work with. Herbert went 7-for-9 (not including an incompletion via spike), passing on every down. Had a wobbly rugby pitch from Keenan Allen to Hunter Henry not been dropped, Herbert would have led a 99-yard walk-off touchdown drive. Instead he sat 0-2, with a matchup looming against the quarterback you grew up watching.
How do you shake the nerves off while taking on Tom Brady? Well, how does airing out a 53-yard strike for a touchdown on the fourth play of the game sound? 1st-and-10 from the Chargers 47, the Chargers only send three receivers out on routes, with Tyron Johnson being the lone receiver on the right side. The Bucs only rushed four, but even with a 3-on-2, the Chargers failed to stop a pass rush. Tyron Johnson’s route ran directly in-between the two deep safeties, allowing him to get behind both of them and create space. With two Buccaneers on top of Herbert, he stepped into pressure to complete the pass and was able to loft a ball caught by Johnson at the 3-yard-line. Herbert made the pass with his heels on his own 36, meaning that ball traveled 61 yards before finding an open Tyron Johnson. Johnson finished the job by taking it in the remaining 3 yards, and L.A. was on the board.
However, the 24-14 lead the Chargers held going into halftime wouldn’t hold up for the rest of the game, as they would fall to the Bucs 38-31. Just like his last two games, Herbert had the ball in his hands down seven with 2:40 left to play. He sailed a ball over the head of Keenan Allen, leading to a game-sealing interception.
The Chargers fell to 0-3 under Herbert, but there is so much to be excited about. Justin Herbert is authoritative in the pocket and able to navigate pressure well. His deep balls come with ease and already has the confidence to throw to spots, trusting that his receivers will get to the ball. His completion percentage over expected as calculated by RBSDM is 6th in the league, and his EPA+CPOE composite ranks 10th. Looking downfield, Herbert is 19-for-34 on targets 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage, completing passes at a 55.8% rate. Push that back to 20+ yards and it falls to 4-for-10 at 40% completion. It’s also promising to see that, in an offense often heavy on screens, Herbert is a perfect 27-for-27 on targets behind the line of scrimmage (all per NFL Next Gen Stats).
As a rookie, his biggest flaws are correctable. He’s shown the ability to use his eyes to get receivers open, but still has a penchant for staring targets down. High throws will be brought down, as that is something that can be fixed with repetition and comfort. There was a fumble he caused by misplacing a handoff closer to the back’s shoulder pad; that is something that can be worked out. The mistakes Justin Herbert has made thus far are less of the hair-pulling, frustrating variety, but more like the kind of mistake that leaves you upset at the outcome, but glad you took the risk.
There are things going wrong for this Chargers team that are completely out of his control. He can’t try to go win that Chiefs game in his debut if the play call doesn’t put the onus on everyone but Herbert. The offensive linemen don’t always offer the protection needed to develop these deep passing routes. Against Carolina especially, Herbert simply didn’t have the time for the downfield routes to develop. Two of the sacks allowed by Los Angeles have ended up on NFL Next Gen Stats’ list of fastest sacks.
And yes, Justin Herbert has lost three one-score games while having the ball in his hands with a chance to win or tie in each of them. The loss to Tampa Bay meant that the Chargers are now 3-12 in 15 games decided by 8-or-fewer points since 2019, leading the league in such losses during that span. While that’s not great, this also means Los Angeles had a balmy .250 win rate under such circumstances before Herbert even started a game. I have already lived through enough late afternoon Chargers games, watching Philip Rivers run for his life in a one-score game, only to lose in spectacular fashion. I hope the same fate doesn’t befall Justin Herbert.
Where will Justin Herbert fall within the power ranking of he and his draft classmates down the road? It’s hard to say through four weeks, obviously. The Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals have both provided ample proof of how they seem to squander adequate quarterback play. Of Herbert, Burrow, and Tua, I would venture that Tua may be in the best long-term situation (I can’t believe I’m saying that about a rebuilding Dolphins team), but Tua has yet to take an NFL field. Neither has Jordan Love, heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers, nor Jalen Hurts, stuck behind Carson Wentz. There’s too much unknown to ever make a determination this early, but the three weeks I’ve watched so far have more or less made me a Justin Herbert guy.
I don’t know how he’ll rank among his classmates, nor am I sure what the future holds for Justin Herbert. Hell, there’s not even a guarantee he starts once Tyrod Taylor is healthy again. All I know is this: an 0-3 quarterback has never gotten me this excited to watch his next game.
Behind Enemy Lines 