Why the Celtics Were Smart to Retain their Assets at the Deadline

The Celtics are in an incredibly unique position in the NBA. They have the luxury of both competing at a top level and “tanking” in the upcoming draft lottery. In a deal that sent Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Brooklyn Nets back in July of 2013. This trade sent them a slew of first-round picks: 2014, 2016, 2018, and a pick swap in the 2017 draft. At the time, the general consensus around the Celtics organization was that these picks would be used in trades to land the team a star player. However, something happened to the Nets that not many would have predicted.

The Nets completely and utterly fell apart as an organization.

The Nets remained competitive in the immediate time after the Celtics deal. The season following the trade the team made it as far as the Eastern Conference Semifinals. However, the team would begin to bottom out from there, seeing a first round exit the following season, and a complete playoff season the next. The team purged itself of players over time, losing games handily in the process. In the meantime, the Celtics watched as these trades begin to soar in value by the day. In this season’s upcoming trade deadline, the Celtics (and the entire league, for that matter) ran into another unique situation. For the first time in what felt like forever, super star players were being shopped. All-Star Weekend finished with DeMarcus Cousins, arguably the best big man in the league, leaving the Kings and going down to New Orleans just in time for Mardi Gras. Boogie Cousins was essentially traded for nothing, which prompted the question: “If the Pelicans can get DeMarcus Cousins for THAT, then what can the Celtics get for X?”

From Jimmy Butler to Paul George, from Andre Drummond to Carmelo Anthony, rumors buzzed around the NBA tying Boston to a slew of teams. Isaiah Thomas tweeted emojis, Jae Crowder posted (then deleted) a picture of himself in an inside-out Bulls workout shirt, and yet, at 3 PM today, Danny Ainge sat on their hands and did not make a trade. And he was smart to do so.

  1. This Is A Very Skilled, Very Deep Draft Class

The Nets are currently sitting at 9 wins and, despite the team’s trades today, don’t look to accrue many more this season. They are last in the league record-wise and currently sit atop the lottery odds for this year’s draft. And this year’s draft is going to be something special. Every team is looking to get into this draft, especially the top end. This is a collection of “NBA-ready” talent that could look to immediately improve an organization. The Celtics would immediately benefit from some of the names in this draft. However, this is the only year in the Nets’ deal that calls specifically for a pick swap. That means that trading the Brooklyn 2017 pick away would result in them losing out on this draft. The Celtics possess two second round picks this draft, but trading away the pick would play them out of the first round entirely. This would result in either the Celtics missing out on this year’s talent entirely, or the front office looking to give away more in order to get back in.

One of the popular arguments currently is that “there’s only a 25% chance to get the #1 pick, why take the risk when you can get something sure now?” While there is good insight in the fact that the first overall pick isn’t a sure thing, this draft isn’t like other drafts. In last year’s draft, the Celtics landed the 3rd overall pick. In any other draft, this would be a very respectable pick. In the 2016 draft, it was considered a loss. Outside Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, the players were young and raw. There were seemingly only two players that could make immediate impact; the rest were works in progress. This draft, however, is incredibly deep. While Markelle Fultz seems to be a consensus generational talent, the talent runs deep. Mock drafts have proven players like Jonathan Isaac, De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Harry Giles descending the draft boards. Good talent can be seen throughout the top half of the first round; netting anywhere in the Top 5 of the lottery would be a near-lock at a good NBA talent that could make an impact on a team.

  1. No Two Trades are Built the Same

One of the most frustrating aspects of having the Brooklyn picks is the fact that they almost become a roadblock in some deals. No deal can extend beyond its initial phases unless the Nets picks are on the table. For example, one of the reports floating around at the time of the deadline was that the Indiana Pacers wouldn’t begin talks about moving Paul George to Boston until the first-round picks were on the table. It’s justified here in that Paul George is an All-Star NBA player who has been the face of the Pacers for some time. However, similar discussions were had when the Celtics approached the Philadelphia 76ers last offseason about Nerlens Noel. The Sixers were well aware of the kind of assets the Celtics had, so they wouldn’t settle for anything less than first-round tender. The Celtics offered one of their own firsts as opposed to a Brooklyn pick, the Sixers declined, and Noel remained in Philly until he was dealt to Dallas earlier today. This deal was for Andrew Bogut, Justin Anderson, and a protected first that would become two seconds if the pick were to fall under protection. This kind of deal almost half a year later brings out the people that cry, “But the Celtics could’ve beaten that! Easily!” But it’s not that simple.

Take the DeMarcus Cousins deal, for example. People believe that that deal could’ve been beaten by just about any team in the league, let alone the Celtics with all their assets. But there’s more than just strictly names and numbers to a deal. Interactions between teams are subjective at this point. It’s been well documented since the trade took place that Kings owner Vivek Ranadive has a small obsession for Buddy Hield. Now Hield has had an average year, nothing to write home about. What’s worse is that in an age of young rookies and one-and-dones entering the draft, Hield is a 23-year-old rookie. And yet, Vivek simply had to have him, and was willing to give up one of the best big men in basketball to do so. This deal sans Hield couldn’t land Jahlil Okafor, the Sixers center who couldn’t get dealt at the deadline despite repeated attempts. This was clearly an unusual case, most likely stemming from Vivek’s love for Hield. Since New Orleans had what the Kings wanted so dearly, they were able to come away with what looked like a robbery at gunpoint. There was no way that any other team was going to get this deal. And knowing the Celtics, that Brooklyn pick would have had to be in the conversation to make any headway into landing Cousins. In the end, one can’t really assume that just because a deal is bad doesn’t mean the Celtics can’t form an objectively better deal. That same level of deal won’t even get Danny Ainge’s foot in the door; he’s going to have to sacrifice a lot more in the eyes of another front office in order to make a deal.

    3. Sacrificing Starters For A Star Doesn’t Turn Into Wins

The Celtics have had a collection of young, scrappy, hard-working guys playing for them throughout this rebuild. These aren’t stars necessarily, but B-level players that drastically help the Celtics. On the national scale, they may not always be recognized. But in Boston, these guys are the key to success; wins don’t come without these players. So when the Chicago Bulls come knocking, asking for a combination of Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown (and at least one Brooklyn pick, too) in exchange for Jimmy Butler , it’s tough to even consider that a balanced deal.

While the value of an All-Star and the face of a franchise can seem justifiably high, it’s tough to argue that that kind of trade will make a team better, even in the short term. Yes bringing in a guy like Butler or George would be bringing in a leader, a point-scorer, and a high basketball IQ player. But one player can’t make up for the contributions of three starters. And after that, who knows? Once that deal expires and that star hits free agency, what then? How can you guarantee that the player you sacrificed so much for will even stay? If he doesn’t are you looking back at the roster prior to the trade, asking what would the team have been like if you never traded them?

ESPN’s Trade Machine has a mechanism where each trade comes with a theoretical wins added/lost to a team by making a trade. It’s a fun little mechanism to add, but it misses so much from reality. Adding one All-Star for Crowder, Bradley, and Smart is said to net the Celtics about 6 more wins this season. I’m sure that there’s an algorithm that calculates point totals, assists, etc., runs them through some formulas, and spits out a number. While that’s all well and good, what the algorithm can’t calculate for is real-life intangibles. Moving three starters for one player forces you to bring up second line guys to start. There’s a loss of production as compared to the starters that they replaced, as well as a loss in depth to the roster. That loss of depth leads to more fatigue down the stretch, possibly injuries. Come playoff time, that extra level of fatigue, those third-stringers that are now your backups, all that comes into play. And that doesn’t even account for the biggest issue in your way…

   4. LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers Still Exist

Look. LeBron James is currently one of the greatest basketball players to ever play. There’s even a chance that he’ll surpass Michael Jordan one day to truly become the GOAT. With the likes of him, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and the rest of the defending champion Cavaliers in your way, what’s the rush in signing an All-Star now? The Celtics are technically only in Year Four of their rebuild (yes, rebuild). And yet, while they’re rebuilding, they are currently the 2nd seed in the East and even were coming close to dethroning the Cavaliers without any additional assets prior to the All-Star Break. There’s no reason to be in win-now mode. This is a young roster dedicated to the process. They came in after Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo all found new teams. They were in on the ground floor of the rebuild. Now, while they’re probably 60, 70% done rebuilding, people are telling them to sell and win now? Yes, the Celtics have the ability to trade for an All-Star now. But why? An All-Star alone doesn’t guarantee you a victory in a series against the Cavs. Even if the Celtics were to come out victorious, they still have to face whatever team comes out of the much tougher Western Conference. Most likely, that team will be the Warriors, a team made up of FOUR All-Stars. If the Cavaliers game was an uphill battle, beating the multi-headed Hydra that is the Golden State Warriors is going to be, well, a war.

LeBron James is 32 years old. This is probably the last year that the NBA is going to see 40-minute games out of LeBron. The Celtics are a young team. They have talents like Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic playing overseas that will be brought in next season. Zizic alone is being praised for what he’s been doing thus far; it’s been argued that he’d be a top 10 pick in this draft if he had stayed out one more year and matured into what he’s currently showing. On top of all that, the Celtics have the chance to bring in someone like Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball to immediately impact their team.

Even if you get rid of all our young assets coming in to make the team better long-term, this summer is going to be a free agency summer for the ages. As much as it hurt to see Kevin Durant go to the Warriors, he did help Boston in one regard: he legitimized the city of Boston as an NBA free agency destination. The mere fact that the Celtics were in it until the very end between the incumbent Oklahoma City Thunder and the 73-9 Warriors shows just how viable Boston can be as a free agency destination. This summer is going to be a huge summer for free agency as well. Outside of LeBron, Steph, Durant, and Westbrook, the market’s going to be full of players such as Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward, as well as a slew of other legitimate NBA talents. With the collective bargaining agreement raising the salary cap to record highs this summer, look for the Celtics to bring in a legitimate player long-term to help a young roster.

Look, the sky isn’t falling because the Celtics didn’t trade for Jimmy Butler or Paul George. This team didn’t get any worse; they didn’t lose any assets, nor did they lose any fundamental starters. Would it be nice to see someone like Butler tear it up in green and white? Absolutely. But, if we’re being honest, this team is still in a rebuild. Not a single person in the Celtics front office feels a pressure to win a title now. Not a single Celtic player wants to settle for second-best in the conference, top-5 in the league. The Celtics aren’t going to cut short a good thing that they have: they want greatness, no matter how long it takes them. With the assets they have, the youth on their roster, and their city finally re-legitimized for the first time in years, the Celtics are going to be great. All it takes is keeping your cards close to your chest and knowing when to say no to a short-term fix.

One thought on “Why the Celtics Were Smart to Retain their Assets at the Deadline

  1. Patience, discipline, and being smart has paid off so far, stick with the game plan, Boston fans will support you, we are in for the long haul. Chemistry is critical, although not always quantifiable, you know when you have it and when you don’t. Celts do Knicks don’t, why risk disrupting that intangible that is working so well, I agree whole heartedly, sometimes the best move is no move at all!

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